Norwich 2–3 Wrexham: Result & Stats | Championship

Norwich

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Wrexham

J. Makama 90'

J. Stacey 39'

J. Windass 59', 47'

R. Longman 54'

9/20/2025

Championship · Round 6Carrow Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Norwich49%

×Draw25%

Wrexham26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NorwichExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.07

Norwich

1.56

Wrexham

1.07

Norwich creates 46% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

1.51

creates per match

0.86

1.29

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Norwich

1.51

Wrexham

0.86

allows per match

Norwich

1.29

Wrexham

1.62

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Norwich+0.21scores more

Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Norwich ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Norwich or draw

74%

Norwich or Wrexham

75%

Draw or Wrexham

51%

Winning margin

Norwich wins by 2+

25%

Wrexham wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Norwich 1+ goals

79%

Norwich 2+ goals

46%

Norwich 3+ goals

21%

Wrexham 1+ goals

66%

Wrexham 2+ goals

29%

Wrexham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Norwich (draw refunded)

65%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Norwich at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.29 · 53 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Norwich attack 1.51 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Norwich defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Norwich scores more

49%

level

25%

Wrexham scores more

26%

Norwich at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Windass

Wrexham · F

9.2

Match Events

13'

Mirko Topić

35'

Callum Doyle

39'

J. Stacey↳ M. Jurasek

46'

L. Brunt← C. Doyle

47'

J. Windass↳ I. Kabore

54'

R. Longman↳ I. Kabore

59'

J. Windass↳ M. Cleworth

62'

Lewis O'Brien

63'

L. Gibbs← M. Topic

64'

O. Schwartau← A. Crnac

64'

J. Makama← M. Jurasek

66'

M. James← B. Sheaf

74'

George Dobson

75'

G. Thomason← J. Windass

76'

E. Marcondes← P. A. Diallo

83'

J. McClean← I. Kabore

90'

J. Makama

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NorwichWrexham

Overview

62%Possession38%

14Total Shots11

2.34Expected Goals (xG)1.30

2Corners3

6Fouls9

Shots

14Total Shots11

5On Target8

4Off Target3

5Blocked0

9Inside Box6

5Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

571Total Passes352

490Accurate Passes271

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

-0.48Goals Prevented-0.48

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2

Championship: Norwich 2–3 Wrexham

Wrexham beat Norwich 3-2 in Championship on September 20, 2025.

Goals: J. Stacey (39'), J. Windass (47', 59'), R. Longman (54'), J. Makama (90').

Norwich controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Carrow Road in Norwich.

Norwich vs Wrexham — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Norwich 2–3 Wrexham