Wrexham 1–2 Hull City: Result & Stats

Wrexham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Hull City

N. Broadhead 76'

L. Koumas 63'

J. Gelhardt 40'

3/10/2026

Championship · Round 37Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham40%

×Draw24%

Hull City35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WrexhamExpected goals in this matchHull City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.45

Wrexham

1.56

Hull City

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 47 away

1.78

creates per match

1.28

1.61

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Wrexham

1.78

Hull City

1.28

allows per match

Wrexham

1.61

Hull City

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par

Hull City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Hull City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw

65%

Wrexham or Hull City

76%

Draw or Hull City

60%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+

20%

Hull City wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals

79%

Wrexham 2+ goals

46%

Wrexham 3+ goals

21%

Hull City 1+ goals

77%

Hull City 2+ goals

42%

Hull City 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)

53%

Hull City (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.34 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Hull City defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.56

Hull City attack 1.28 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wrexham scores more

40%

level

24%

Hull City scores more

35%

Wrexham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

N. Broadhead

Wrexham · F

7.9

Match Events

7'

8'

40'

45+1'

46'

O. Rathbone← Z. Vyner

49'

Oliver Rathbone

60'

J. Lundstram← A. Hadziahmetovic

63'

L. Koumas↳ L. Millar

66'

Dominic Hyam

69'

S. Ajayi← P. McNair

69'

K. Joseph← O. McBurnie

70'

D. Keillor-Dunn← J. Windass

70'

I. Kabore← R. Longman

76'

N. Broadhead↳ I. Kabore

82'

T. Collyer← L. Millar

82'

M. Belloumi← J. Gelhardt

84'

J. Rodriguez← S. Smith

84'

B. Cadamarteri← M. Cleworth

86'

Toby Collyer

90+4'

Kyle Joseph

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WrexhamHull

Overview

63%Possession37%

10Total Shots12

1.07Expected Goals (xG)1.53

8Corners4

11Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots12

2On Target5

4Off Target3

4Blocked4

5Inside Box6

5Outside Box6

Passing

63%Possession37%

515Total Passes313

414Accurate Passes218

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

-0.07Goals Prevented-0.07

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides0

Championship: Wrexham 1–2 Hull City

Hull City beat Wrexham 2-1 in Championship on March 10, 2026.

Goals: J. Gelhardt (40'), L. Koumas (63'), N. Broadhead (76').

Wrexham controlled possession (63%) and registered 10 shots to 12.

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.

Wrexham vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Wrexham 1–2 Hull City