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Hull City vs Wrexham — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wrexham
Wrexham
12/10/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hull City34%
×Draw27%
Wrexham39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.20
Wrexham
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 23 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.18
Wrexham
1.22

allows per match

Hull City
1.36
Wrexham
1.22

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
61%
Hull City or Wrexham
73%
Draw or Wrexham
66%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
14%
Wrexham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
70%
Hull City 2+ goals
34%
Hull City 3+ goals
12%
Wrexham 1+ goals
72%
Wrexham 2+ goals
37%
Wrexham 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
47%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.18 + Wrexham defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.20

Wrexham attack 1.22 + Hull City defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hull City scores more
34%
level
27%
Wrexham scores more
39%

Wrexham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Hull City 2–0 Wrexham

Hull City beat Wrexham 2-0 in Championship on December 10, 2025.

The match was played at MKM Stadium in Hull.