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Wrexham vs Derby — Championship 2025

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Derby
Derby
L. O'Brien 59'
B. Brereton Diaz 72'
9/27/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham47%
×Draw23%
Derby30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.77
Derby
1.37

Wrexham creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 48 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Derby
1.13

allows per match

Wrexham
1.61
Derby
1.77

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Derby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
70%
Wrexham or Derby
77%
Draw or Derby
53%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
25%
Derby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
83%
Wrexham 2+ goals
53%
Wrexham 3+ goals
26%
Derby 1+ goals
75%
Derby 2+ goals
40%
Derby 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
61%
Derby (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

Derby away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.77 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Derby defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Derby attack 1.13 + Wrexham defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wrexham scores more
47%
level
23%
Derby scores more
30%

Wrexham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
C. MorrisDerbyDerby · F
8.2

Match Events

8'
Lewis O'Brien
13'
Matthew Clarke
36'
Ebou Adams
49'
Lewis Travis
59'
L. O'Brien↳ I. Kabore
63'
D. Ozoh← E. Adams
63'
B. Clark← A. Weimann
72'
B. Brereton Diaz↳ P. Agyemang
74'
M. James← B. Sheaf
74'
K. Jackson← P. Agyemang
80'
R. Barnett← I. Kabore
80'
N. Broadhead← J. Windass
85'
David Ozoh
90+1'
Carlton Morris
90+3'
S. Smith← K. Moore

Possession

55%Wrexham

Shots

10Wrexham

Pass accuracy

52%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamDerby
Overview
55%Possession45%
10Total Shots5
0.89Expected Goals (xG)0.64
4Corners3
9Fouls16
Shots
10Total Shots5
5On Target3
4Off Target2
1Blocked0
5Inside Box3
5Outside Box2
Passing
55%Possession45%
447Total Passes381
376Accurate Passes292
84%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
0.22Goals Prevented0.22
Discipline
9Fouls16
1Yellow Cards5
2Offsides1

Wrexham 1 – 1 Derby

Wrexham and Derby drew 1-1 in Championship on September 27, 2025.

Goals: L. O'Brien (59'), B. Brereton Diaz (72').

Wrexham controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 5.

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.