Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Derby vs Wrexham — Championship 2025

Derby
Derby
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Wrexham
Wrexham
B. Brereton Diaz 34'
M. James 48'
S. Smith 25'
1/4/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 26Pride Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Derby40%
×Draw28%
Wrexham32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Derby
1.28
Wrexham
1.11

Derby creates 15% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 23 away

creates per match

Derby
1.34
Wrexham
1.22

allows per match

Derby
1.00
Wrexham
1.22

finishing

Derby+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Derby ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Derby or draw
68%
Derby or Wrexham
72%
Draw or Wrexham
60%

Winning margin

Derby wins by 2+
18%
Wrexham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Derby 1+ goals
72%
Derby 2+ goals
37%
Derby 3+ goals
14%
Wrexham 1+ goals
67%
Wrexham 2+ goals
30%
Wrexham 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Derby (draw refunded)
56%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Derby at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Derby attack 1.34 + Wrexham defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.28

Wrexham attack 1.22 + Derby defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Derby scores more
40%
level
28%
Wrexham scores more
32%

Derby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
M. JamesWrexhamWrexham · M
8.3

Match Events

25'
S. Smith↳ N. Broadhead
30'
Max Cleworth
34'
B. Brereton Diaz↳ M. Clarke
48'
M. James
60'
C. Blackett-Taylor← C. Elder
60'
A. Weimann← P. Agyemang
60'
L. Salvesen← R. Brewster
60'
L. Travis← L. Thompson
66'
O. Rathbone← J. Windass
68'
Matty James
73'
Dion Sanderson
75'
L. O'Brien← N. Broadhead
81'
K. Jackson← D. Sanderson
90'
L. Cacace← G. Thomason
90'
J. Rodriguez← S. Smith

Possession

52%Derby

Shots

13Derby

Pass accuracy

50%Derby

Statistics

DerbyWrexham
Overview
52%Possession48%
13Total Shots11
1.35Expected Goals (xG)1.00
12Corners2
9Fouls8
Shots
13Total Shots11
5On Target3
5Off Target5
3Blocked3
11Inside Box6
2Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
435Total Passes411
351Accurate Passes327
81%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
0.74Goals Prevented0.74
Discipline
9Fouls8
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Championship: Derby 1–2 Wrexham

Wrexham beat Derby 2-1 in Championship on January 4, 2026.

Goals: S. Smith (25'), B. Brereton Diaz (34'), M. James (48').

Derby controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Pride Park in Derby.