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Wrexham vs Crawley Town — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
M. Cleworth 79'
E. Lee 24'
Junior Quitirna 54'
9/21/2024League OneLeague One · Round 7STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham62%
×Draw21%
Crawley Town16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.94
Crawley Town
0.88

Wrexham creates 120% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Crawley Town
1.10

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Crawley Town
2.10

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
84%
Wrexham or Crawley Town
79%
Draw or Crawley Town
38%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
37%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
86%
Wrexham 2+ goals
58%
Wrexham 3+ goals
30%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
59%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
22%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
79%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Crawley Town defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.94

Crawley Town attack 1.10 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wrexham scores more
62%
level
21%
Crawley Town scores more
16%

Wrexham at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
M. CleworthWrexhamWrexham · D
8.2

Match Events

24'
E. Lee↳ M. Cleworth
50'
George Dobson
54'
Junior Quitirna↳ R. Darcy
62'
C. Bragg← M. Anderson
62'
R. Hepburn-Murphy← W. Swan
64'
S. Fletcher← O. Palmer
68'
A. Adeyemo← Junior Quitirna
71'
S. Revan← J. McClean
71'
J. Marriott← P. Mullin
79'
G. Evans← A. Cannon
79'
M. Cleworth↳ G. Dobson
81'
T. Showunmi← R. Darcy

Possession

42%Wrexham

Shots

15Wrexham

Pass accuracy

48%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamCrawley
Overview
42%Possession58%
15Total Shots18
7Corners8
8Fouls7
Shots
15Total Shots18
3On Target7
9Off Target8
3Blocked3
11Inside Box12
4Outside Box6
Passing
42%Possession58%
325Total Passes468
248Accurate Passes386
76%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Crawley Town

Wrexham beat Crawley Town 2-1 in League One on September 21, 2024.

Goals: E. Lee (24'), Junior Quitirna (54'), M. Cleworth (79').

Crawley Town controlled possession (58%) and registered 18 shots to 15.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.