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Crawley Town vs Wrexham — League One 2018

Crawley Town
Crawley Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wrexham
Wrexham
B. Ibrahim 90'
E. Lee 90+5'
M. James 2'
2/1/2025League OneLeague One · Round 30Broadfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Crawley Town32%
×Draw28%
Wrexham40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crawley Town
1.06
Wrexham
1.23

Wrexham creates 16% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 23 away

creates per match

Crawley Town
1.30
Wrexham
1.13

allows per match

Crawley Town
1.33
Wrexham
0.83

finishing

Crawley Town+0.00on par
Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crawley Town ↓

Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Crawley Town or draw
60%
Crawley Town or Wrexham
72%
Draw or Wrexham
68%

Winning margin

Crawley Town wins by 2+
12%
Wrexham wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Crawley Town 1+ goals
65%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
29%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
9%
Wrexham 1+ goals
71%
Wrexham 2+ goals
35%
Wrexham 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Crawley Town (draw refunded)
44%
Wrexham (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crawley Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crawley Town attack 1.30 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Crawley Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Crawley Town scores more
32%
level
28%
Wrexham scores more
40%

Wrexham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37
M. JamesWrexhamWrexham · M
7.9

Match Events

2'
M. James↳ O. Rathbone
44'
Panutche Camará
49'
Eoghan O'Connell
54'
J. Kelly← Panutche Camará
55'
T. Showunmi← T. John-Jules
61'
A. Adeyemo← H. Forster
70'
S. Fletcher← J. Rodríguez
77'
K. Doyle← M. Anderson
77'
R. Feely← W. Swan
77'
J. Marriott← S. Smith
77'
R. Longman← R. Barnett
88'
E. Lee← M. James
90'
B. Ibrahim
90+5'
E. Lee↳ R. Longman

Possession

65%Crawley

Shots

16Crawley

Pass accuracy

56%Crawley

Statistics

CrawleyWrexham
Overview
65%Possession35%
16Total Shots8
7Corners6
8Fouls12
Shots
16Total Shots8
1On Target4
7Off Target3
8Blocked1
10Inside Box8
6Outside Box0
Passing
65%Possession35%
550Total Passes287
451Accurate Passes183
82%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

League One: Crawley Town 1–2 Wrexham

Wrexham beat Crawley Town 2-1 in League One on February 1, 2025.

Goals: M. James (2'), B. Ibrahim (90'), E. Lee (90+5').

Crawley Town controlled possession (65%) and registered 16 shots to 8.

The match was played at Broadfield Stadium in Crawley, West Sussex.