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Wrexham vs Coventry — Championship 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Coventry
Coventry
K. Moore 83', 69', 60'
T. Sakamoto 88'
E. Mason-Clark 22'
10/31/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Racecourse Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Wrexham38%
×Draw26%
Coventry36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.39
Coventry
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.54
Coventry
1.49

allows per match

Wrexham
1.19
Coventry
1.24

finishing

Wrexham+0.35scores more
Coventry+0.04on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Coventry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
64%
Wrexham or Coventry
74%
Draw or Coventry
62%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
18%
Coventry wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
75%
Wrexham 2+ goals
40%
Wrexham 3+ goals
16%
Coventry 1+ goals
74%
Coventry 2+ goals
39%
Coventry 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
52%
Coventry (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.19 · 18 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.24 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.54 + Coventry defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.39

Coventry attack 1.49 + Wrexham defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wrexham scores more
38%
level
26%
Coventry scores more
36%

Wrexham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19
K. MooreWrexhamWrexham · F
10.0

Match Events

22'
E. Mason-Clark↳ T. Sakamoto
43'
Ben Sheaf
54'
Kieffer Moore
54'
Liam Kitching
60'
K. Moore↳ J. Windass
67'
E. Simms← H. Wright
67'
V. Torp← B. Thomas-Asante
69'
K. Moore↳ J. Windass
74'
G. Dobson← B. Sheaf
74'
J. Dasilva← J. Bidwell
74'
J. Eccles← J. Allen
83'
K. Moore↳ J. Windass
85'
S. Smith← J. Windass
88'
T. Sakamoto↳ V. Torp
90+1'
G. Thomason← M. James

Possession

46%Wrexham

Shots

13Wrexham

Pass accuracy

49%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamCoventry
Overview
46%Possession54%
13Total Shots18
1.41Expected Goals (xG)1.56
3Corners6
19Fouls0
Shots
13Total Shots18
7On Target5
4Off Target8
2Blocked5
8Inside Box10
5Outside Box8
Passing
46%Possession54%
352Total Passes423
277Accurate Passes348
79%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-1.28Goals Prevented-1.28
Discipline
19Fouls0
2Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Wrexham vs Coventry

Wrexham beat Coventry 3-2 in Championship on October 31, 2025.

Goals: E. Mason-Clark (22'), K. Moore (60', 69', 83'), T. Sakamoto (88').

Coventry controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 13.

The match was played at Racecourse Ground in Wrexham.