Coventry 3–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats | Championship

Coventry

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wrexham

E. Mason-Clark 90'

V. Torp 80'

B. Thomas-Asante 19'

O. Rathbone 25'

4/26/2026

Championship · Round 45Coventry Building Society Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Coventry56%

×Draw24%

Wrexham20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CoventryExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.92

Coventry

1.73

Wrexham

0.92

Coventry creates 88% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 18 away

1.83

creates per match

0.86

0.97

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Coventry

1.83

Wrexham

0.86

allows per match

Coventry

0.97

Wrexham

1.62

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

Coventry+0.15scores more

Wrexham+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coventry ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Coventry or draw

80%

Coventry or Wrexham

76%

Draw or Wrexham

44%

Winning margin

Coventry wins by 2+

31%

Wrexham wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Coventry 1+ goals

82%

Coventry 2+ goals

52%

Coventry 3+ goals

25%

Wrexham 1+ goals

60%

Wrexham 2+ goals

23%

Wrexham 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Coventry (draw refunded)

74%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coventry at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 49 matches

Wrexham away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.62 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coventry attack 1.83 + Wrexham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.73

Wrexham attack 0.86 + Coventry defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Coventry scores more

56%

level

24%

Wrexham scores more

20%

Coventry at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Mason-Clark

Coventry · M

9.0

Match Events

19'

B. Thomas-Asante↳ E. Mason-Clark

25'

O. Rathbone↳ I. Kabore

29'

40'

50'

53'

60'

L. O'Brien← O. Rathbone

71'

V. Torp← J. Eccles

71'

E. Simms← H. Wright

71'

N. Broadhead← J. Windass

72'

K. Moore← S. Smith

80'

V. Torp

82'

R. Esse← B. Thomas-Asante

87'

J. Allen← M. Grimes

90'

E. Mason-Clark↳ F. Onyeka

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CoventryWrexham

Overview

61%Possession39%

15Total Shots13

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.25

5Corners4

6Fouls18

Shots

15Total Shots13

6On Target2

4Off Target5

5Blocked6

7Inside Box9

8Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

466Total Passes298

388Accurate Passes227

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.18Goals Prevented-0.18

Discipline

6Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1