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Wrexham vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Wrexham
Wrexham
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
J. Marriott 87'
S. Smith 74'
S. Fletcher 71' (pen)
4/5/2025League OneLeague One · Round 41STōK Cae Ras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Wrexham57%
×Draw24%
Burton Albion19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wrexham
1.69
Burton Albion
0.85

Wrexham creates 99% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 176 away

creates per match

Wrexham
1.78
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Wrexham
0.65
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Wrexham+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wrexham ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wrexham or draw
81%
Wrexham or Burton Albion
76%
Draw or Burton Albion
43%

Winning margin

Wrexham wins by 2+
32%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wrexham 1+ goals
82%
Wrexham 2+ goals
50%
Wrexham 3+ goals
24%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
57%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
21%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Wrexham (draw refunded)
75%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wrexham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.65 · 23 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wrexham attack 1.78 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Wrexham defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Wrexham scores more
57%
level
24%
Burton Albion scores more
19%

Wrexham at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
S. SmithWrexhamWrexham · F
8.2

Match Events

10'
Charlie Webster
33'
Oliver Rathbone
34'
S. Fletcher← J. Rodríguez
46'
E. Lee← G. Dobson
46'
R. Barnett← J. McClean
49'
Owen Dodgson
62'
D. Williams← J. McKiernan
71'
S. FletcherPenalty
74'
S. Smith↳ R. Longman
77'
J. Marriott← S. Smith
78'
Fábio Tavares← R. Burrell
79'
A. Forde← J. Larsson
85'
T. Kalinauskas← J. Armer
87'
J. Marriott↳ R. Barnett
90'
Max Crocombe

Possession

71%Wrexham

Shots

24Wrexham

Pass accuracy

59%Wrexham

Statistics

WrexhamBurton
Overview
71%Possession29%
24Total Shots3
4Corners2
9Fouls6
Shots
24Total Shots3
5On Target2
12Off Target0
7Blocked1
15Inside Box1
9Outside Box2
Passing
71%Possession29%
533Total Passes226
456Accurate Passes138
86%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
3Offsides0

League One: Wrexham 3–0 Burton Albion

Wrexham beat Burton Albion 3-0 in League One on April 5, 2025.

Goals: S. Fletcher (71' pen), S. Smith (74'), J. Marriott (87').

Wrexham controlled possession (71%) and registered 24 shots to 3.

The match was played at STōK Cae Ras in Wrecsam.