Burton Albion 0–1 Wrexham: Result & Stats

Burton Albion

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wrexham

E. Lee 65'

12/7/2024

League One · Round 19Pirelli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Burton Albion32%

×Draw28%

Wrexham39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Burton AlbionExpected goals in this matchWrexham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.21

Burton Albion

1.06

Wrexham

1.21

Wrexham creates 14% more chances

Season form · 177 home / 23 away

1.29

creates per match

1.13

1.30

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Burton Albion

1.29

Wrexham

1.13

allows per match

Burton Albion

1.30

Wrexham

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Wrexham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burton Albion ↓

Wrexham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Burton Albion or draw

61%

Burton Albion or Wrexham

72%

Draw or Wrexham

68%

Winning margin

Burton Albion wins by 2+

12%

Wrexham wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Burton Albion 1+ goals

65%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

29%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

9%

Wrexham 1+ goals

70%

Wrexham 2+ goals

34%

Wrexham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

45%

Wrexham (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burton Albion at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.30 · 177 matches

Wrexham away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burton Albion attack 1.29 + Wrexham defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wrexham attack 1.13 + Burton Albion defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Burton Albion scores more

32%

level

28%

Wrexham scores more

39%

Wrexham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wrexham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

E. O'Connell

Wrexham · D

8.0

Match Events

34'

Jason Sraha

65'

E. Lee

68'

S. Fletcher← O. Palmer

71'

B. Whitfield← R. Burrell

79'

T. O'Connor← E. Lee

79'

P. Mullin← A. Cannon

80'

D. Orsi← C. Gilligan

86'

B. Bodin← E. Watt

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BurtonWrexham

Overview

45%Possession55%

5Total Shots16

4Corners8

12Fouls13

Shots

5Total Shots16

1On Target4

0Off Target6

4Blocked6

4Inside Box11

1Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

329Total Passes406

208Accurate Passes286

63%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls13

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides0