Wotton 1–2 Pride of Gall Hill: Result & Stats

Wotton

FT

1 – 2

Pride of Gall Hill

1/26/2025

Premier League · Round 1Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Wotton41%

×Draw24%

Pride of Gall Hill35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WottonExpected goals in this matchPride of Gall Hill

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.50

Wotton

1.63

Pride of Gall Hill

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 21 away

1.49

creates per match

0.90

2.11

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Wotton

1.49

Pride of Gall Hill

0.90

allows per match

Wotton

2.11

Pride of Gall Hill

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

Pride of Gall Hill →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wotton or draw

65%

Wotton or Pride of Gall Hill

76%

Draw or Pride of Gall Hill

59%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+

21%

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals

80%

Wotton 2+ goals

48%

Wotton 3+ goals

22%

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals

78%

Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals

44%

Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)

54%

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 37 matches

Pride of Gall Hill away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.49 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pride of Gall Hill attack 0.90 + Wotton defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wotton scores more

41%

level

24%

Pride of Gall Hill scores more

35%

Wotton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wotton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff