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Pride of Gall Hill vs Wotton — Premier League 2019

Pride of Gall Hill
Pride of Gall Hill
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Wotton
Wotton
3/28/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Dover Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pride of Gall Hill51%
×Draw21%
Wotton28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pride of Gall Hill
2.12
Wotton
1.53

Pride of Gall Hill creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 44 away

creates per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.74
Wotton
1.80

allows per match

Pride of Gall Hill
1.26
Wotton
2.50

finishing

Pride of Gall Hill+0.00on par
Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pride of Gall Hill ↓

Wotton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Pride of Gall Hill or draw
72%
Pride of Gall Hill or Wotton
79%
Draw or Wotton
49%

Winning margin

Pride of Gall Hill wins by 2+
30%
Wotton wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Pride of Gall Hill 1+ goals
88%
Pride of Gall Hill 2+ goals
62%
Pride of Gall Hill 3+ goals
35%
Wotton 1+ goals
78%
Wotton 2+ goals
45%
Wotton 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Pride of Gall Hill (draw refunded)
65%
Wotton (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pride of Gall Hill at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pride of Gall Hill attack 1.74 + Wotton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.12

Wotton attack 1.80 + Pride of Gall Hill defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Pride of Gall Hill scores more
51%
level
21%
Wotton scores more
28%

Pride of Gall Hill at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Pride of Gall Hill will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pride of Gall Hill vs Wotton

Wotton beat Pride of Gall Hill 3-1 in Premier League on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Dover Playing Fields in Dover.