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Wotton vs Notre Dame — Premier League 2019

Wotton
Wotton
CANC
20:00
Notre Dame
Notre Dame
4/5/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wotton34%
×Draw20%
Notre Dame46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wotton
1.89
Notre Dame
2.23

Notre Dame creates 18% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wotton
1.49
Notre Dame
2.35

allows per match

Wotton
2.11
Notre Dame
2.29

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par
Notre Dame+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

Notre Dame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Wotton or draw
54%
Wotton or Notre Dame
80%
Draw or Notre Dame
66%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+
17%
Notre Dame wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals
85%
Wotton 2+ goals
56%
Wotton 3+ goals
29%
Notre Dame 1+ goals
89%
Notre Dame 2+ goals
65%
Notre Dame 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)
42%
Notre Dame (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 37 matches

Notre Dame away — creates 2.35, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.49 + Notre Dame defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.89

Notre Dame attack 2.35 + Wotton defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wotton scores more
34%
level
20%
Notre Dame scores more
46%

Notre Dame at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Notre Dame will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wotton vs Notre Dame — Match Preview

Wotton face Notre Dame on April 5, 2020 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wotton host Notre Dame at Wildey Turf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.