Notre Dame 1–6 Wotton: Result & Stats

Notre Dame

FT

1 – 6

Wotton

4/9/2023

Premier League · Round 5Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Notre Dame39%

×Draw20%

Wotton41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Notre DameExpected goals in this matchWotton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

2.25

Notre Dame

2.18

Wotton

2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 44 away

1.86

creates per match

1.80

2.71

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Notre Dame

1.86

Wotton

1.80

allows per match

Notre Dame

2.71

Wotton

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Notre Dame+0.00on par

Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Notre Dame ↓

Wotton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Notre Dame or draw

59%

Notre Dame or Wotton

80%

Draw or Wotton

61%

Winning margin

Notre Dame wins by 2+

22%

Wotton wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Notre Dame 1+ goals

89%

Notre Dame 2+ goals

64%

Notre Dame 3+ goals

37%

Wotton 1+ goals

89%

Wotton 2+ goals

65%

Wotton 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Notre Dame (draw refunded)

48%

Wotton (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Notre Dame at home — creates 1.86, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Notre Dame attack 1.86 + Wotton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.18

Wotton attack 1.80 + Notre Dame defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Notre Dame scores more

39%

level

20%

Wotton scores more

41%

Wotton at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wotton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff