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Wotton vs Deacons — Premier League 2024

Wotton
Wotton
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Deacons
Deacons
3/13/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Dover Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Wotton45%
×Draw20%
Deacons35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wotton
2.25
Deacons
1.96

Wotton creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wotton
1.35
Deacons
1.46

allows per match

Wotton
2.45
Deacons
3.15

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par
Deacons+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

Deacons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Wotton or draw
65%
Wotton or Deacons
80%
Draw or Deacons
55%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+
26%
Deacons wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals
89%
Wotton 2+ goals
65%
Wotton 3+ goals
39%
Deacons 1+ goals
86%
Deacons 2+ goals
58%
Deacons 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)
57%
Deacons (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.35, concedes 2.45 · 20 matches

Deacons away — creates 1.46, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.35 + Deacons defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.25

Deacons attack 1.46 + Wotton defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wotton scores more
45%
level
20%
Deacons scores more
35%

Wotton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wotton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wotton 3–1 Deacons

Wotton beat Deacons 3-1 in Premier League on March 13, 2025.

The match was played at Dover Playing Fields in Dover.