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Deacons vs Wotton — Premier League 2019

Deacons
Deacons
FT
4 – 0
Wotton
Wotton
8/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Wildey Turf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Deacons42%
×Draw21%
Wotton38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deacons
2.07
Wotton
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 44 away

creates per match

Deacons
1.64
Wotton
1.80

allows per match

Deacons
2.12
Wotton
2.50

finishing

Deacons+0.00on par
Wotton+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deacons ↓

Wotton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Deacons or draw
62%
Deacons or Wotton
79%
Draw or Wotton
58%

Winning margin

Deacons wins by 2+
23%
Wotton wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Deacons 1+ goals
87%
Deacons 2+ goals
61%
Deacons 3+ goals
34%
Wotton 1+ goals
86%
Wotton 2+ goals
58%
Wotton 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Deacons (draw refunded)
53%
Wotton (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deacons at home — creates 1.64, concedes 2.12 · 33 matches

Wotton away — creates 1.80, concedes 2.50 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deacons attack 1.64 + Wotton defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.07

Wotton attack 1.80 + Deacons defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Deacons scores more
42%
level
21%
Wotton scores more
38%

Deacons at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Deacons will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Deacons 4–0 Wotton

Deacons beat Wotton 4-0 in Premier League on August 15, 2023.

The match was played at Wildey Turf in Bridgetown.