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Wotton vs Barbados Soccer Academy — Premier League 2019

Wotton
Wotton
FT
1 – 0
Barbados Soccer Academy
Barbados Soccer Academy
3/3/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Speightstown Playing Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Wotton59%
×Draw19%
Barbados Soccer Academy22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wotton
2.46
Barbados Soccer Academy
1.44

Wotton creates 71% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

creates per match

Wotton
1.49
Barbados Soccer Academy
0.78

allows per match

Wotton
2.11
Barbados Soccer Academy
3.44

finishing

Wotton+0.00on par
Barbados Soccer Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wotton ↓

Barbados Soccer Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Wotton or draw
78%
Wotton or Barbados Soccer Academy
81%
Draw or Barbados Soccer Academy
41%

Winning margin

Wotton wins by 2+
38%
Barbados Soccer Academy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wotton 1+ goals
91%
Wotton 2+ goals
70%
Wotton 3+ goals
44%
Barbados Soccer Academy 1+ goals
76%
Barbados Soccer Academy 2+ goals
42%
Barbados Soccer Academy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wotton (draw refunded)
73%
Barbados Soccer Academy (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wotton at home — creates 1.49, concedes 2.11 · 37 matches

Barbados Soccer Academy away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wotton attack 1.49 + Barbados Soccer Academy defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.46

Barbados Soccer Academy attack 0.78 + Wotton defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wotton scores more
59%
level
19%
Barbados Soccer Academy scores more
22%

Wotton at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wotton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wotton 1–0 Barbados Soccer Academy

Wotton beat Barbados Soccer Academy 1-0 in Premier League on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Speightstown Playing Field in Speightstown.