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Wormatia Worms vs TuS RW Koblenz — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
3/29/2025Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 24EWR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wormatia Worms53%
×Draw22%
TuS RW Koblenz25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wormatia Worms
2.03
TuS RW Koblenz
1.33

Wormatia Worms creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wormatia Worms
2.42
TuS RW Koblenz
1.53

allows per match

Wormatia Worms
1.12
TuS RW Koblenz
1.64

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par
TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

TuS RW Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw
75%
Wormatia Worms or TuS RW Koblenz
78%
Draw or TuS RW Koblenz
47%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
31%
TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
87%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
60%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
33%
TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
74%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
38%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
68%
TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

TuS RW Koblenz away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.64 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 2.42 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.03

TuS RW Koblenz attack 1.53 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more
53%
level
22%
TuS RW Koblenz scores more
25%

Wormatia Worms at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wormatia Worms vs TuS RW Koblenz

Wormatia Worms beat TuS RW Koblenz 2-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at EWR-Arena in Worms.