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TuS RW Koblenz vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

TuS RW Koblenz
TuS RW Koblenz
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
9/14/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 7Stadion Oberwerth

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

TuS RW Koblenz42%
×Draw22%
Wormatia Worms36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TuS RW Koblenz
1.94
Wormatia Worms
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

creates per match

TuS RW Koblenz
2.17
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

TuS RW Koblenz
1.57
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

TuS RW Koblenz+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TuS RW Koblenz ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

TuS RW Koblenz or draw
64%
TuS RW Koblenz or Wormatia Worms
78%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
58%

Winning margin

TuS RW Koblenz wins by 2+
23%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

TuS RW Koblenz 1+ goals
86%
TuS RW Koblenz 2+ goals
58%
TuS RW Koblenz 3+ goals
30%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
83%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
53%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

TuS RW Koblenz (draw refunded)
54%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TuS RW Koblenz at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.57 · 53 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TuS RW Koblenz attack 2.17 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.94

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + TuS RW Koblenz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TuS RW Koblenz scores more
42%
level
22%
Wormatia Worms scores more
36%

TuS RW Koblenz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "TuS RW Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: TuS RW Koblenz 1–2 Wormatia Worms

Wormatia Worms beat TuS RW Koblenz 2-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Oberwerth in Koblenz.