Wormatia Worms vs Röchling Völklingen

Wormatia Worms

CANC

14:30

Röchling Völklingen

12/5/2020

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 15EWR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wormatia Worms59%

×Draw20%

Röchling Völklingen21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wormatia WormsExpected goals in this matchRöchling Völklingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.23

Wormatia Worms

2.17

Röchling Völklingen

1.23

Wormatia Worms creates 76% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 15 away

2.42

creates per match

1.33

1.12

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Wormatia Worms

2.42

Röchling Völklingen

1.33

allows per match

Wormatia Worms

1.12

Röchling Völklingen

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

Röchling Völklingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw

79%

Wormatia Worms or Röchling Völklingen

80%

Draw or Röchling Völklingen

41%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+

36%

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals

89%

Wormatia Worms 2+ goals

64%

Wormatia Worms 3+ goals

36%

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

71%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

35%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)

74%

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

Röchling Völklingen away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 2.42 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.17

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.33 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more

59%

level

20%

Röchling Völklingen scores more

21%

Wormatia Worms at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff