Röchling Völklingen 0–3 Wormatia Worms

Röchling Völklingen

FT

0 – 3

Wormatia Worms

9/5/2021

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 5Hermann-Neuberger-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Röchling Völklingen33%

×Draw23%

Wormatia Worms45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Röchling VölklingenExpected goals in this matchWormatia Worms

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.84

Röchling Völklingen

1.55

Wormatia Worms

1.84

Wormatia Worms creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 68 away

1.38

creates per match

1.99

1.69

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.38

Wormatia Worms

1.99

allows per match

Röchling Völklingen

1.69

Wormatia Worms

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röchling Völklingen+0.00on par

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röchling Völklingen ↓

Wormatia Worms →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Röchling Völklingen or draw

55%

Röchling Völklingen or Wormatia Worms

77%

Draw or Wormatia Worms

67%

Winning margin

Röchling Völklingen wins by 2+

16%

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Röchling Völklingen 1+ goals

79%

Röchling Völklingen 2+ goals

46%

Röchling Völklingen 3+ goals

20%

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals

84%

Wormatia Worms 2+ goals

55%

Wormatia Worms 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Röchling Völklingen (draw refunded)

42%

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röchling Völklingen at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röchling Völklingen attack 1.38 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.55

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Röchling Völklingen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Röchling Völklingen scores more

33%

level

23%

Wormatia Worms scores more

45%

Wormatia Worms at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff