Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wormatia Worms vs Bitburg — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Bitburg
Bitburg
7/28/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 1EWR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Wormatia Worms70%
×Draw16%
Bitburg14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wormatia Worms
2.76
Bitburg
1.17

Wormatia Worms creates 136% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

creates per match

Wormatia Worms
2.42
Bitburg
1.21

allows per match

Wormatia Worms
1.12
Bitburg
3.11

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par
Bitburg+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

Bitburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw
86%
Wormatia Worms or Bitburg
84%
Draw or Bitburg
30%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
49%
Bitburg wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
94%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
76%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
51%
Bitburg 1+ goals
69%
Bitburg 2+ goals
33%
Bitburg 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
83%
Bitburg (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

Bitburg away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.11 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 2.42 + Bitburg defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.76

Bitburg attack 1.21 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more
70%
level
16%
Bitburg scores more
14%

Wormatia Worms at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Wormatia Worms 3–1 Bitburg

Wormatia Worms beat Bitburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on July 28, 2023.

The match was played at EWR-Arena in Worms.