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Bitburg vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Bitburg
Bitburg
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
11/5/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 20Stadion-Ost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bitburg25%
×Draw20%
Wormatia Worms56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bitburg
1.54
Wormatia Worms
2.37

Wormatia Worms creates 54% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 68 away

creates per match

Bitburg
1.37
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

Bitburg
2.74
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

Bitburg+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bitburg ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Bitburg or draw
44%
Bitburg or Wormatia Worms
80%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
75%

Winning margin

Bitburg wins by 2+
11%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Bitburg 1+ goals
79%
Bitburg 2+ goals
45%
Bitburg 3+ goals
20%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
91%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
68%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Bitburg (draw refunded)
31%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bitburg at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.74 · 19 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bitburg attack 1.37 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Bitburg defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Bitburg scores more
25%
level
20%
Wormatia Worms scores more
56%

Wormatia Worms at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar: Bitburg 1–1 Wormatia Worms

Bitburg and Wormatia Worms drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion-Ost in Bitburg.