Wormatia Worms 5–0 Alemannia Waldalgesheim

Wormatia Worms

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

8/26/2023

Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 7EWR-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Wormatia Worms62%

×Draw19%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wormatia WormsExpected goals in this matchAlemannia Waldalgesheim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.18

Wormatia Worms

2.28

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.18

Wormatia Worms creates 93% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 43 away

2.42

creates per match

1.23

1.12

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Wormatia Worms

2.42

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

1.23

allows per match

Wormatia Worms

1.12

Alemannia Waldalgesheim

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wormatia Worms ↓

Alemannia Waldalgesheim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Wormatia Worms or draw

81%

Wormatia Worms or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

81%

Draw or Alemannia Waldalgesheim

38%

Winning margin

Wormatia Worms wins by 2+

39%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Wormatia Worms 1+ goals

90%

Wormatia Worms 2+ goals

66%

Wormatia Worms 3+ goals

39%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals

69%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals

33%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)

77%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wormatia Worms at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.12 · 69 matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.14 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wormatia Worms attack 2.42 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.28

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.23 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Wormatia Worms scores more

62%

level

19%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more

19%

Wormatia Worms at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Wormatia Worms will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff