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Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Wormatia Worms — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
Alemannia Waldalgesheim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Wormatia Worms
Wormatia Worms
3/9/2024Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 26Stadion an der Waldstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Alemannia Waldalgesheim39%
×Draw23%
Wormatia Worms38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.65
Wormatia Worms
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

creates per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.58
Wormatia Worms
1.99

allows per match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim
1.27
Wormatia Worms
1.72

finishing

Alemannia Waldalgesheim+0.00on par
Wormatia Worms+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alemannia Waldalgesheim ↓

Wormatia Worms →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Alemannia Waldalgesheim or draw
62%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim or Wormatia Worms
77%
Draw or Wormatia Worms
61%

Winning margin

Alemannia Waldalgesheim wins by 2+
20%
Wormatia Worms wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Alemannia Waldalgesheim 1+ goals
81%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 2+ goals
49%
Alemannia Waldalgesheim 3+ goals
23%
Wormatia Worms 1+ goals
80%
Wormatia Worms 2+ goals
48%
Wormatia Worms 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Alemannia Waldalgesheim (draw refunded)
51%
Wormatia Worms (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

Wormatia Worms away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.72 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alemannia Waldalgesheim attack 1.58 + Wormatia Worms defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.65

Wormatia Worms attack 1.99 + Alemannia Waldalgesheim defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Alemannia Waldalgesheim scores more
39%
level
23%
Wormatia Worms scores more
38%

Alemannia Waldalgesheim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alemannia Waldalgesheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alemannia Waldalgesheim vs Wormatia Worms

Alemannia Waldalgesheim and Wormatia Worms drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion an der Waldstraße in Waldalgesheim.