Wolves 2–3 Tottenham: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Tottenham

R. Jiménez 79' (pen)

Rúben Neves 68' (pen)

H. Kane 61'

Lucas Moura 30'

E. Lamela 27'

11/3/2018

Premier League · Round 11Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Wolves39%

×Draw26%

Tottenham35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchTottenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.30

Wolves

1.37

Tottenham

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 36 away

1.11

creates per match

1.17

1.43

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Wolves

1.11

Tottenham

1.17

allows per match

Wolves

1.43

Tottenham

1.62

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.08on par

Tottenham+0.30scores more

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Tottenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

65%

Wolves or Tottenham

74%

Draw or Tottenham

61%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

18%

Tottenham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

40%

Wolves 3+ goals

16%

Tottenham 1+ goals

73%

Tottenham 2+ goals

37%

Tottenham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

52%

Tottenham (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.43 · 31 matches

Tottenham away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.11 + Tottenham defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Tottenham attack 1.17 + Wolves defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolves scores more

39%

level

26%

Tottenham scores more

35%

Wolves at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Jiménez

Wolves · F

8.5

Match Events

7'

Son Heung-Min← M. Dembélé

24'

Ryan Bennett

27'

E. Lamela↳ Son Heung-Min

30'

Lucas Moura↳ K. Trippier

59'

C. Eriksen← Son Heung-Min

61'

H. Kane

62'

M. Gibbs-White← João Moutinho

62'

Léo Bonatini← Ivan Cavaleiro

68'

Rúben NevesPenalty

78'

Juan Foyth

79'

D. Sánchez← Lucas Moura

79'

R. JiménezPenalty

84'

Adama Traoré← Hélder Costa

87'

Harry Winks

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesTottenham

Overview

48%Possession52%

16Total Shots10

5Corners1

11Fouls8

Shots

16Total Shots10

7On Target8

4Off Target1

5Blocked1

8Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

458Total Passes505

374Accurate Passes417

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides3