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Tottenham vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Tottenham
Tottenham
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wolves
Wolves
8/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Tottenham45%
×Draw27%
Wolves29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham
1.41
Wolves
1.08

Tottenham creates 31% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

Tottenham
1.22
Wolves
0.78

allows per match

Tottenham
1.37
Wolves
1.59

finishing

Tottenham-0.02on par
Wolves-0.36scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw
71%
Tottenham or Wolves
73%
Draw or Wolves
55%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+
21%
Wolves wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals
76%
Tottenham 2+ goals
41%
Tottenham 3+ goals
17%
Wolves 1+ goals
66%
Wolves 2+ goals
29%
Wolves 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)
61%
Wolves (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.37 · 25 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.59 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.22 + Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wolves attack 0.78 + Tottenham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Tottenham scores more
45%
level
27%
Wolves scores more
29%

Tottenham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Tottenham 1–0 Wolves

Tottenham beat Wolves 1-0 in Premier League on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.