Tottenham 1–1 Wolves: Result & Stats

Tottenham

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

J. Palhinha 90'

S. Bueno 54'

9/27/2025

Premier League · Round 6Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Tottenham51%

×Draw25%

Wolves25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TottenhamExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.04

Tottenham

1.61

Wolves

1.04

Tottenham creates 55% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 28 away

1.47

creates per match

0.79

1.30

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Tottenham

1.47

Wolves

0.79

allows per match

Tottenham

1.30

Wolves

1.76

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Tottenham+0.04on par

Wolves-0.29scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Tottenham or draw

75%

Tottenham or Wolves

75%

Draw or Wolves

49%

Winning margin

Tottenham wins by 2+

27%

Wolves wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Tottenham 1+ goals

80%

Tottenham 2+ goals

48%

Tottenham 3+ goals

22%

Wolves 1+ goals

65%

Wolves 2+ goals

28%

Wolves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Tottenham (draw refunded)

67%

Wolves (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.30 · 37 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.76 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham attack 1.47 + Wolves defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.61

Wolves attack 0.79 + Tottenham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Tottenham scores more

51%

level

25%

Wolves scores more

25%

Tottenham at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Tottenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Xavi Simons

35'

Matt Doherty

39'

João Gomes

46'

E. Agbadou← M. Doherty

46'

J. Tchatchoua← Hwang Hee-Chan

54'

S. Bueno

62'

B. Johnson← R. Bentancur

63'

P. Porro← D. Spence

64'

J. Bellegarde← Joao Gomes

65'

Lucas Bergvall

78'

P. M. Sarr← L. Bergvall

78'

W. Odobert← X. Simons

84'

M. Tel← D. Udogie

84'

T. Arokodare← J. S. Larsen

90+4'

João Palhinha

90+2'

Toti← J. Arias

90'

J. Palhinha↳ P. M. Sarr

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TottenhamWolves

Overview

51%Possession49%

10Total Shots9

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.15

10Corners9

9Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target3

5Off Target5

2Blocked1

7Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

398Total Passes394

325Accurate Passes321

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

0.50Goals Prevented0.50

Discipline

9Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0