Wolves 1–0 Sheffield Utd: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sheffield Utd

Willian José 60'

4/17/2021

Premier League · Round 32Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Wolves48%

×Draw27%

Sheffield Utd25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchSheffield Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.93

Wolves

1.40

Sheffield Utd

0.93

Wolves creates 51% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 41 away

1.14

creates per match

0.56

1.30

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Wolves

1.14

Sheffield Utd

0.56

allows per match

Wolves

1.30

Sheffield Utd

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Sheffield Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

75%

Wolves or Sheffield Utd

73%

Draw or Sheffield Utd

52%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

23%

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

75%

Wolves 2+ goals

41%

Wolves 3+ goals

17%

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

61%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

24%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

66%

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.30 · 123 matches

Sheffield Utd away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.66 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.14 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Sheffield Utd attack 0.56 + Wolves defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolves scores more

48%

level

27%

Sheffield Utd scores more

25%

Wolves at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

O. Norwood

Sheffield Utd · M

8.0

Match Events

36'

Rhian Brewster

60'

Willian José↳ Adama Traoré

71'

Daniel Podence

72'

Vitinha← Daniel Podence

75'

O. Burke← R. Brewster

75'

L. Mousset← B. Osborn

77'

Fábio Silva← Willian José

82'

Enda Stevens

83'

J. Bogle← E. Ampadu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesSheffield

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots8

3Corners3

8Fouls15

Shots

10Total Shots8

5On Target2

3Off Target2

2Blocked4

9Inside Box5

1Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

479Total Passes512

407Accurate Passes445

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2