Sheffield Utd 2–1 Wolves: Result & Stats

Sheffield Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wolves

O. Norwood 90+10' (pen)

C. Archer 72'

J. Bellegarde 89'

11/4/2023

Premier League · Round 11Bramall Lane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Sheffield Utd41%

×Draw28%

Wolves31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sheffield UtdExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Sheffield Utd

1.25

Wolves

1.04

Sheffield Utd creates 20% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 122 away

1.00

creates per match

0.89

1.20

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sheffield Utd

1.00

Wolves

0.89

allows per match

Sheffield Utd

1.20

Wolves

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sheffield Utd+0.00on par

Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheffield Utd ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sheffield Utd or draw

69%

Sheffield Utd or Wolves

72%

Draw or Wolves

59%

Winning margin

Sheffield Utd wins by 2+

18%

Wolves wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sheffield Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sheffield Utd 2+ goals

36%

Sheffield Utd 3+ goals

13%

Wolves 1+ goals

65%

Wolves 2+ goals

28%

Wolves 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sheffield Utd (draw refunded)

57%

Wolves (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheffield Utd at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.50 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheffield Utd attack 1.00 + Wolves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wolves attack 0.89 + Sheffield Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sheffield Utd scores more

41%

level

28%

Wolves scores more

31%

Sheffield Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sheffield Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

O. Norwood

Sheffield Utd · M

7.3

Match Events

22'

George Baldock

45+2'

J. McAtee← R. Brewster

49'

Craig Dawson

58'

Tommy Doyle

61'

J. Bellegarde← S. Kalajdzic

70'

B. Traoré← T. Doyle

72'

C. Archer↳ J. McAtee

81'

Fábio Silva

81'

Fábio Silva← Toti Gomes

89'

Gustavo Hamer

89'

J. Bellegarde↳ Hwang Hee-Chan

90'

B. Osborn← G. Hamer

90+10'

O. NorwoodPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SheffieldWolves

Overview

38%Possession62%

11Total Shots10

1.05Expected Goals (xG)1.33

4Corners4

13Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target3

6Off Target5

3Blocked2

4Inside Box7

7Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

300Total Passes501

201Accurate Passes407

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides3

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Wolves

Sheffield Utd beat Wolves 2-1 in Premier League on November 4, 2023.

Goals: C. Archer (72'), J. Bellegarde (89'), O. Norwood (90+10' pen).

Wolves controlled possession (62%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Bramall Lane in Sheffield.

Sheffield Utd vs Wolves — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sheffield Utd vs Wolves