Wolves 1–4 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Manchester United

J. Bellegarde 45'

B. Fernandes 82' (pen), 25'

M. Mount 62'

B. Mbeumo 51'

12/8/2025

Premier League · Round 15Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Wolves35%

×Draw25%

Manchester United39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.44

Wolves

1.35

Manchester United

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

1.08

creates per match

1.44

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Wolves

1.08

Manchester United

1.44

allows per match

Wolves

1.44

Manchester United

1.62

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.08on par

finishing

Wolves-0.01on par

Manchester United+0.08on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

61%

Wolves or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

65%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

16%

Manchester United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

74%

Wolves 2+ goals

39%

Wolves 3+ goals

15%

Manchester United 1+ goals

76%

Manchester United 2+ goals

42%

Manchester United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

47%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.62 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.08 + Manchester United defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Manchester United attack 1.44 + Wolves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolves scores more

35%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

39%

Manchester United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

B. Fernandes↳ M. Cunha

38'

Bryan Mbeumo

44'

Jørgen Strand Larsen

45'

J. Bellegarde↳ D. M. Wolfe

46'

Ladislav Krejčí

51'

B. Mbeumo↳ D. Dalot

54'

F. Lopez← J. Bellegarde

62'

M. Mount↳ B. Fernandes

69'

T. Arokodare← J. S. Larsen

69'

L. Martinez← N. Mazraoui

69'

L. Yoro← A. Heaven

70'

M. Mane← J. Arias

70'

H. Bueno← Toti

78'

K. Mainoo← Casemiro

80'

Amad DialloPenalty confirmed

81'

Yerson Mosquera

82'

B. FernandesPenalty

84'

P. Dorgu← D. Dalot

85'

J. Zirkzee← M. Mount

86'

J. Tchatchoua← K. Hoever

90+6'

Joshua Zirkzee

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesManchester

Overview

37%Possession63%

8Total Shots27

0.41Expected Goals (xG)4.24

1Corners9

17Fouls12

Shots

8Total Shots27

2On Target10

3Off Target3

3Blocked14

4Inside Box20

4Outside Box7

Passing

37%Possession63%

294Total Passes541

208Accurate Passes458

71%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

0.17Goals Prevented0.17

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3