Wolves 0–1 Manchester United: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester United

M. Rashford 76'

12/31/2022

Premier League · Round 18Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Wolves34%

×Draw25%

Manchester United40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchManchester United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.46

Wolves

1.33

Manchester United

1.46

Manchester United creates 10% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

1.08

creates per match

1.47

1.44

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Wolves

1.08

Manchester United

1.47

allows per match

Wolves

1.44

Manchester United

1.57

-0.01on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.01on par

Manchester United+0.12scores more

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Manchester United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

60%

Wolves or Manchester United

75%

Draw or Manchester United

66%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

15%

Manchester United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

74%

Wolves 2+ goals

38%

Wolves 3+ goals

15%

Manchester United 1+ goals

77%

Manchester United 2+ goals

43%

Manchester United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

46%

Manchester United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Manchester United away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.57 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.08 + Manchester United defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33

Manchester United attack 1.47 + Wolves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolves scores more

34%

level

25%

Manchester United scores more

40%

Manchester United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Manchester United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

José Sá

Wolves · G

7.7

Match Events

26'

Nélson Semedo

46'

Adama Traoré← Diego Costa

46'

M. Rashford← A. Garnacho

57'

Casemiro

61'

Fred← C. Eriksen

65'

Jonny Castro← Nélson Semedo

72'

Fred

73'

R. Aït Nouri← João Moutinho

73'

Toti← Hugo Bueno

76'

M. Rashford↳ Bruno Fernandes

81'

R. Jiménez← Daniel Podence

81'

D. van de Beek← A. Martial

85'

Marcus RashfordGoal cancelled

88'

Marcus Rashford

90+3'

A. Elanga← Antony

90+3'

H. Maguire← Bruno Fernandes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesManchester

Overview

46%Possession54%

10Total Shots16

7Corners5

11Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots16

3On Target6

1Off Target5

6Blocked5

8Inside Box11

2Outside Box5

Passing

46%Possession54%

394Total Passes484

301Accurate Passes393

76%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2