Wolves 0–2 Crystal Palace: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Crystal Palace

W. Zaha 34' (pen)

J. Mateta 19'

3/5/2022

Premier League · Round 28Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Wolves33%

×Draw27%

Crystal Palace40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchCrystal Palace

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.36

Wolves

1.21

Crystal Palace

1.36

Crystal Palace creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

1.08

creates per match

1.28

1.44

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Wolves

1.08

Crystal Palace

1.28

allows per match

Wolves

1.44

Crystal Palace

1.33

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Wolves-0.01on par

Crystal Palace-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Crystal Palace →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

60%

Wolves or Crystal Palace

73%

Draw or Crystal Palace

67%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

14%

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

70%

Wolves 2+ goals

34%

Wolves 3+ goals

12%

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

74%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

39%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

45%

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 29 matches

Crystal Palace away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 1.08 + Crystal Palace defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Crystal Palace attack 1.28 + Wolves defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolves scores more

33%

level

27%

Crystal Palace scores more

40%

Crystal Palace at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Guaita

Crystal Palace · G

8.2

Match Events

19'

J. Mateta

25'

Jonny Castro← K. Hoever

34'

W. ZahaPenalty

53'

Conor Gallagher

63'

R. Jiménez← Pedro Neto

69'

C. Benteke← J. Mateta

69'

L. Milivojević← C. Kouyaté

79'

82'

88'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesCrystal

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots12

7Corners7

13Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots12

5On Target8

4Off Target1

3Blocked3

6Inside Box11

6Outside Box1

Passing

64%Possession36%

561Total Passes308

456Accurate Passes227

81%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides8