Crystal Palace 2–1 Wolves: Result & Stats

Crystal Palace

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Wolves

W. Zaha 70'

E. Eze 47'

Adama Traoré 31'

10/18/2022

Premier League · Round 12Selhurst Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Crystal Palace55%

×Draw24%

Wolves22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Crystal PalaceExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.00

Crystal Palace

1.75

Wolves

1.00

Crystal Palace creates 75% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 26 away

1.85

creates per match

0.81

1.20

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Crystal Palace

1.85

Wolves

0.81

allows per match

Crystal Palace

1.20

Wolves

1.66

-0.76scores less than expected

finishing

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

Crystal Palace-0.76scores less

Wolves-0.27scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crystal Palace ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Crystal Palace or draw

78%

Crystal Palace or Wolves

76%

Draw or Wolves

45%

Winning margin

Crystal Palace wins by 2+

31%

Wolves wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Crystal Palace 1+ goals

83%

Crystal Palace 2+ goals

52%

Crystal Palace 3+ goals

25%

Wolves 1+ goals

63%

Wolves 2+ goals

26%

Wolves 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Crystal Palace (draw refunded)

72%

Wolves (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crystal Palace at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 22 matches

Wolves away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.66 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crystal Palace attack 1.85 + Wolves defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wolves attack 0.81 + Crystal Palace defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Crystal Palace scores more

55%

level

24%

Wolves scores more

22%

Crystal Palace at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Crystal Palace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Eze

Crystal Palace · M

7.9

Match Events

31'

Adama Traoré↳ Hugo Bueno

39'

Joel Ward

39'

Boubacar Traoré

45+4'

Cheick Doucouré

47'

E. Eze↳ M. Olise

58'

João Moutinho← B. Traoré

58'

J. Hodge← Matheus Nunes

58'

Gonçalo Guedes← Adama Traoré

70'

W. Zaha↳ O. Édouard

75'

Hwang Hee-Chan← Diego Costa

80'

J. Ayew← M. Olise

81'

J. Mateta← O. Édouard

90+1'

Marc Guéhi

90'

J. Riedewald← E. Eze

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CrystalWolves

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots10

4Corners2

14Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target4

5Off Target5

5Blocked1

9Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

449Total Passes428

370Accurate Passes340

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls18

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4