Wolves 4–0 Beşiktaş: Result & Stats

Wolves

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beşiktaş

Diogo Jota 68', 63', 57'

L. Dendoncker 67'

12/12/2019

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6Molineux Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Wolves74%

×Draw16%

Beşiktaş9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolvesExpected goals in this matchBeşiktaş

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

0.69

Wolves

2.35

Beşiktaş

0.69

Wolves creates 241% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

2.13

creates per match

1.00

0.38

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Wolves

2.13

Beşiktaş

1.00

allows per match

Wolves

0.38

Beşiktaş

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolves+0.00on par

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolves ↓

Beşiktaş →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wolves or draw

91%

Wolves or Beşiktaş

84%

Draw or Beşiktaş

26%

Winning margin

Wolves wins by 2+

51%

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Wolves 1+ goals

90%

Wolves 2+ goals

68%

Wolves 3+ goals

41%

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

50%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

15%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Wolves (draw refunded)

89%

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolves at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Beşiktaş away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolves attack 2.13 + Beşiktaş defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.35

Beşiktaş attack 1.00 + Wolves defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Wolves scores more

74%

level

16%

Beşiktaş scores more

9%

Wolves at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Diogo Jota

Wolves · M

9.1

Match Events

40'

Max Kilman

56'

Necip Uysal

56'

Diogo Jota← Rúben Neves

57'

Diogo Jota↳ Pedro Neto

63'

Diogo Jota

64'

Mohamed Elneny← G. Yalçın

67'

L. Dendoncker↳ João Moutinho

68'

Diogo Jota↳ O. Buur

70'

T. Perry← João Moutinho

73'

O. Otasowie← L. Dendoncker

76'

E. Roco← K. Kalafat

81'

A. Diaby← J. Lens

90'

Patrick Cutrone

90'

Enzo Roco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WolvesBeşiktaş

Overview

52%Possession48%

15Total Shots7

6Corners1

12Fouls7

Shots

15Total Shots7

7On Target0

7Off Target4

1Blocked3

10Inside Box1

5Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

457Total Passes429

377Accurate Passes349

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3