Beşiktaş 0–3 Wolves: Result & Stats

Beşiktaş

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Wolves

7/23/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Beşiktaş28%

×Draw25%

Wolves46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeşiktaşExpected goals in this matchWolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.53

Beşiktaş

1.14

Wolves

1.53

Wolves creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

1.60

creates per match

1.67

1.40

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Beşiktaş

1.60

Wolves

1.67

allows per match

Beşiktaş

1.40

Wolves

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beşiktaş+0.00on par

Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beşiktaş ↓

Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Beşiktaş or draw

54%

Beşiktaş or Wolves

75%

Draw or Wolves

72%

Winning margin

Beşiktaş wins by 2+

11%

Wolves wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Beşiktaş 1+ goals

68%

Beşiktaş 2+ goals

32%

Beşiktaş 3+ goals

11%

Wolves 1+ goals

78%

Wolves 2+ goals

45%

Wolves 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Beşiktaş (draw refunded)

38%

Wolves (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beşiktaş at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beşiktaş attack 1.60 + Wolves defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.14

Wolves attack 1.67 + Beşiktaş defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Beşiktaş scores more

28%

level

25%

Wolves scores more

46%

Wolves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff