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Wollongong Wolves vs Sutherland Sharks — New South Wales NPL 2026

Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
6/12/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 19Albert Butler Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Wollongong Wolves47%
×Draw24%
Sutherland Sharks29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wollongong Wolves
1.69
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

Wollongong Wolves creates 31% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 91 away

creates per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.73
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

allows per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.28
Sutherland Sharks
1.65

finishing

Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par
Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wollongong Wolves ↓

Sutherland Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wollongong Wolves or draw
71%
Wollongong Wolves or Sutherland Sharks
76%
Draw or Sutherland Sharks
53%

Winning margin

Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+
25%
Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals
82%
Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals
50%
Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals
24%
Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
37%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)
61%
Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wollongong Wolves at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 94 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.73 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wollongong Wolves scores more
47%
level
24%
Sutherland Sharks scores more
29%

Wollongong Wolves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Wollongong Wolves 2–1 Sutherland Sharks

Wollongong Wolves beat Sutherland Sharks 2-1 in New South Wales NPL on June 12, 2024.

The match was played at Albert Butler Park in Wollongong.