Sutherland Sharks 0–4 Wollongong Wolves

Sutherland Sharks

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Wollongong Wolves

3/6/2024

New South Wales NPL · Round 4Seymour Shaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Sutherland Sharks30%

×Draw24%

Wollongong Wolves46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutherland SharksExpected goals in this matchWollongong Wolves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.64

Sutherland Sharks

1.27

Wollongong Wolves

1.64

Wollongong Wolves creates 29% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 94 away

1.00

creates per match

1.68

1.59

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks

1.00

Wollongong Wolves

1.68

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks

1.59

Wollongong Wolves

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

Wollongong Wolves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw

54%

Sutherland Sharks or Wollongong Wolves

76%

Draw or Wollongong Wolves

70%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+

13%

Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals

72%

Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals

36%

Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals

14%

Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals

81%

Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals

49%

Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)

39%

Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

Wollongong Wolves away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.68 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more

30%

level

24%

Wollongong Wolves scores more

46%

Wollongong Wolves at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff