Wollongong Wolves 0–0 Mt Druitt Town

Wollongong Wolves

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mt Druitt Town

5/12/2023

New South Wales NPL · Round 15WIN Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Wollongong Wolves54%

×Draw22%

Mt Druitt Town24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wollongong WolvesExpected goals in this matchMt Druitt Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.23

Wollongong Wolves

1.95

Mt Druitt Town

1.23

Wollongong Wolves creates 59% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 64 away

1.73

creates per match

1.19

1.28

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Wollongong Wolves

1.73

Mt Druitt Town

1.19

allows per match

Wollongong Wolves

1.28

Mt Druitt Town

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wollongong Wolves ↓

Mt Druitt Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Wollongong Wolves or draw

76%

Wollongong Wolves or Mt Druitt Town

78%

Draw or Mt Druitt Town

46%

Winning margin

Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+

31%

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals

86%

Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals

58%

Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals

31%

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals

71%

Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals

35%

Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)

69%

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wollongong Wolves at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 94 matches

Mt Druitt Town away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.17 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.73 + Mt Druitt Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.95

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.19 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wollongong Wolves scores more

54%

level

22%

Mt Druitt Town scores more

24%

Wollongong Wolves at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff