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Mt Druitt Town vs Wollongong Wolves — New South Wales NPL 2026

Mt Druitt Town
Mt Druitt Town
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves
8/27/2023New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 30Albert Butler Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Mt Druitt Town30%
×Draw23%
Wollongong Wolves47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mt Druitt Town
1.41
Wollongong Wolves
1.81

Wollongong Wolves creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 94 away

creates per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.29
Wollongong Wolves
1.68

allows per match

Mt Druitt Town
1.94
Wollongong Wolves
1.53

finishing

Mt Druitt Town+0.00on par
Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mt Druitt Town ↓

Wollongong Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mt Druitt Town or draw
53%
Mt Druitt Town or Wollongong Wolves
77%
Draw or Wollongong Wolves
70%

Winning margin

Mt Druitt Town wins by 2+
13%
Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Mt Druitt Town 1+ goals
76%
Mt Druitt Town 2+ goals
41%
Mt Druitt Town 3+ goals
17%
Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals
84%
Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals
54%
Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Mt Druitt Town (draw refunded)
39%
Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mt Druitt Town at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 69 matches

Wollongong Wolves away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mt Druitt Town attack 1.29 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.68 + Mt Druitt Town defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mt Druitt Town scores more
30%
level
23%
Wollongong Wolves scores more
47%

Wollongong Wolves at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wollongong Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mt Druitt Town vs Wollongong Wolves

Wollongong Wolves beat Mt Druitt Town 5-0 in New South Wales NPL on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Albert Butler Park in Wollongong.