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Wollongong Wolves vs Marconi Stallions — New South Wales NPL 2026

Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Marconi Stallions
Marconi Stallions
2/22/2026New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 3WIN Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Wollongong Wolves35%
×Draw25%
Marconi Stallions40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wollongong Wolves
1.36
Marconi Stallions
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 95 away

creates per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.73
Marconi Stallions
1.67

allows per match

Wollongong Wolves
1.28
Marconi Stallions
1.00

finishing

Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par
Marconi Stallions+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wollongong Wolves ↓

Marconi Stallions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wollongong Wolves or draw
60%
Wollongong Wolves or Marconi Stallions
75%
Draw or Marconi Stallions
65%

Winning margin

Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+
16%
Marconi Stallions wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals
74%
Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals
39%
Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals
16%
Marconi Stallions 1+ goals
77%
Marconi Stallions 2+ goals
43%
Marconi Stallions 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)
46%
Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wollongong Wolves at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.28 · 94 matches

Marconi Stallions away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.73 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Marconi Stallions attack 1.67 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wollongong Wolves scores more
35%
level
25%
Marconi Stallions scores more
40%

Marconi Stallions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wollongong Wolves vs Marconi Stallions

Marconi Stallions beat Wollongong Wolves 1-0 in New South Wales NPL on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at WIN Stadium in Wollongong.