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Marconi Stallions vs Wollongong Wolves — New South Wales NPL 2026

Marconi Stallions
Marconi Stallions
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Wollongong Wolves
Wollongong Wolves
5/10/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 14Marconi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Marconi Stallions46%
×Draw23%
Wollongong Wolves31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marconi Stallions
1.85
Wollongong Wolves
1.48

Marconi Stallions creates 25% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 94 away

creates per match

Marconi Stallions
2.16
Wollongong Wolves
1.68

allows per match

Marconi Stallions
1.28
Wollongong Wolves
1.53

finishing

Marconi Stallions+0.00on par
Wollongong Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marconi Stallions ↓

Wollongong Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Marconi Stallions or draw
69%
Marconi Stallions or Wollongong Wolves
77%
Draw or Wollongong Wolves
54%

Winning margin

Marconi Stallions wins by 2+
25%
Wollongong Wolves wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Marconi Stallions 1+ goals
84%
Marconi Stallions 2+ goals
55%
Marconi Stallions 3+ goals
28%
Wollongong Wolves 1+ goals
77%
Wollongong Wolves 2+ goals
43%
Wollongong Wolves 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Marconi Stallions (draw refunded)
60%
Wollongong Wolves (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marconi Stallions at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.28 · 97 matches

Wollongong Wolves away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.53 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marconi Stallions attack 2.16 + Wollongong Wolves defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.85

Wollongong Wolves attack 1.68 + Marconi Stallions defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Marconi Stallions scores more
46%
level
23%
Wollongong Wolves scores more
31%

Marconi Stallions at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Marconi Stallions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Marconi Stallions 0–3 Wollongong Wolves

Wollongong Wolves beat Marconi Stallions 3-0 in New South Wales NPL on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Marconi Stadium in Sydney.