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Wolkite Ketema vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
CANC
00:00
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
6/14/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 30Welkite Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wolkite Ketema29%
×Draw31%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.88
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.10

Welwalo Adigrat Uni creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0.87

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.11

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Welwalo Adigrat Uni+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Welwalo Adigrat Uni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
60%
Wolkite Ketema or Welwalo Adigrat Uni
69%
Draw or Welwalo Adigrat Uni
71%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
10%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
59%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
22%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
6%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1+ goals
67%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 2+ goals
30%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
42%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Welwalo Adigrat Uni away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Welwalo Adigrat Uni defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Welwalo Adigrat Uni attack 0.87 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
29%
level
31%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores more
40%

Welwalo Adigrat Uni at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Welwalo Adigrat Uni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wolkite Ketema host Welwalo Adigrat Uni

June 14, 2020: Wolkite Ketema take on Welwalo Adigrat Uni in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wolkite Ketema host Welwalo Adigrat Uni at Welkite Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.