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Welwalo Adigrat Uni vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
Welwalo Adigrat Uni
CANC
16:00
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
11/28/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 9Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Welwalo Adigrat Uni30%
×Draw29%
Wolkite Ketema42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0.98
Wolkite Ketema
1.22

Wolkite Ketema creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 66 away

creates per match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0.75
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni
1.30
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Welwalo Adigrat Uni+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Welwalo Adigrat Uni ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Welwalo Adigrat Uni or draw
58%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni or Wolkite Ketema
71%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
70%

Winning margin

Welwalo Adigrat Uni wins by 2+
11%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Welwalo Adigrat Uni 1+ goals
62%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 2+ goals
26%
Welwalo Adigrat Uni 3+ goals
8%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
70%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
34%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Welwalo Adigrat Uni (draw refunded)
42%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Welwalo Adigrat Uni at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Welwalo Adigrat Uni attack 0.75 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.98

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Welwalo Adigrat Uni defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Welwalo Adigrat Uni scores more
30%
level
29%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
42%

Wolkite Ketema at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Welwalo Adigrat Uni host Wolkite Ketema

November 28, 2024: Welwalo Adigrat Uni take on Wolkite Ketema in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Welwalo Adigrat Uni host Wolkite Ketema at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.