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Wolkite Ketema vs Sidama Bunna — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
10/14/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema26%
×Draw29%
Sidama Bunna45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.88
Sidama Bunna
1.26

Sidama Bunna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Sidama Bunna
1.19

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Sidama Bunna
1.11

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Sidama Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Sidama Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
55%
Wolkite Ketema or Sidama Bunna
71%
Draw or Sidama Bunna
74%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
9%
Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
59%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
22%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
6%
Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
72%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
36%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
36%
Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Sidama Bunna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.11 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.88

Sidama Bunna attack 1.19 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
26%
level
29%
Sidama Bunna scores more
45%

Sidama Bunna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolkite Ketema 1 – 1 Sidama Bunna

Wolkite Ketema and Sidama Bunna drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.