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Sidama Bunna vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Sidama Bunna
Sidama Bunna
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
4/21/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 20Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Sidama Bunna38%
×Draw29%
Wolkite Ketema33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sidama Bunna
1.17
Wolkite Ketema
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 101 home / 66 away

creates per match

Sidama Bunna
1.13
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Sidama Bunna
1.02
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Sidama Bunna+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sidama Bunna ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sidama Bunna or draw
67%
Sidama Bunna or Wolkite Ketema
71%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
62%

Winning margin

Sidama Bunna wins by 2+
16%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sidama Bunna 1+ goals
69%
Sidama Bunna 2+ goals
33%
Sidama Bunna 3+ goals
11%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
66%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sidama Bunna (draw refunded)
53%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sidama Bunna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.02 · 101 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sidama Bunna attack 1.13 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Sidama Bunna defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sidama Bunna scores more
38%
level
29%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
33%

Sidama Bunna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sidama Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sidama Bunna vs Wolkite Ketema

Wolkite Ketema beat Sidama Bunna 2-1 in Premier League on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.