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Wolkite Ketema vs Legetafo Legedadi — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Legetafo Legedadi
Legetafo Legedadi
5/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Wolkite Ketema39%
×Draw27%
Legetafo Legedadi35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
1.32
Legetafo Legedadi
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 14 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Legetafo Legedadi
1.14

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Legetafo Legedadi
2.00

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Legetafo Legedadi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
65%
Wolkite Ketema or Legetafo Legedadi
73%
Draw or Legetafo Legedadi
61%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
17%
Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
73%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
38%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
15%
Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals
71%
Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals
35%
Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
53%
Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Legetafo Legedadi away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.32

Legetafo Legedadi attack 1.14 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
39%
level
27%
Legetafo Legedadi scores more
35%

Wolkite Ketema at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wolkite Ketema 3–2 Legetafo Legedadi

Wolkite Ketema beat Legetafo Legedadi 3-2 in Premier League on May 11, 2023.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.