Legetafo Legedadi 0–3 Wolkite Ketema

Legetafo Legedadi

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Wolkite Ketema

11/19/2022

Premier League · Round 8Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Legetafo Legedadi24%

×Draw24%

Wolkite Ketema52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legetafo LegedadiExpected goals in this matchWolkite Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.67

Legetafo Legedadi

1.04

Wolkite Ketema

1.67

Wolkite Ketema creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 66 away

0.88

creates per match

1.14

2.19

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Legetafo Legedadi

0.88

Wolkite Ketema

1.14

allows per match

Legetafo Legedadi

2.19

Wolkite Ketema

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legetafo Legedadi+0.00on par

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legetafo Legedadi ↓

Wolkite Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Legetafo Legedadi or draw

48%

Legetafo Legedadi or Wolkite Ketema

76%

Draw or Wolkite Ketema

76%

Winning margin

Legetafo Legedadi wins by 2+

9%

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Legetafo Legedadi 1+ goals

65%

Legetafo Legedadi 2+ goals

28%

Legetafo Legedadi 3+ goals

9%

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals

81%

Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals

50%

Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Legetafo Legedadi (draw refunded)

31%

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legetafo Legedadi at home — creates 0.88, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legetafo Legedadi attack 0.88 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Legetafo Legedadi defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Legetafo Legedadi scores more

24%

level

24%

Wolkite Ketema scores more

52%

Wolkite Ketema at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff