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Wolkite Ketema vs Hambericho Durame — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hambericho Durame
Hambericho Durame
12/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Wolkite Ketema45%
×Draw27%
Hambericho Durame28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
1.35
Hambericho Durame
1.00

Wolkite Ketema creates 35% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 15 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Hambericho Durame
0.67

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Hambericho Durame
2.07

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Hambericho Durame →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
72%
Wolkite Ketema or Hambericho Durame
73%
Draw or Hambericho Durame
55%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
21%
Hambericho Durame wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
74%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
39%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
15%
Hambericho Durame 1+ goals
63%
Hambericho Durame 2+ goals
26%
Hambericho Durame 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
62%
Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Hambericho Durame away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Hambericho Durame defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Hambericho Durame attack 0.67 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
45%
level
27%
Hambericho Durame scores more
28%

Wolkite Ketema at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolkite Ketema vs Hambericho Durame

Wolkite Ketema beat Hambericho Durame 1-0 in Premier League on December 7, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.